Investing in the open.

thesis

When Bitcoin goes up, mining companies usually go up faster, because their costs are mostly fixed while their revenue moves with the coin price. So a basket of miners is a way to bet on Bitcoin with extra upside, and extra risk if Bitcoin falls. To balance that, the basket also holds the exchanges, the retail brokerage apps, and the payment platforms that earn fees from crypto activity regardless of which coin is winning. The thesis pays off if crypto keeps moving toward the mainstream over the next several years. The mix protects me when any single piece, like miner margins, gets squeezed by power costs or a tough Bitcoin market.

why this basket

I wanted exposure to the picks and shovels of crypto, not the gold itself. Buying public stocks instead of buying tokens means I do not have to manage wallets or worry about losing my keys. Spreading the bet across many miners, exchanges, and payment companies means one company blowing up does not wipe me out, which I think matters a lot in a sector that swings this hard.

what would make me sell

• Bitcoin enters a long bear market and miners cannot make money even after the next halving cuts their issuance.
• US regulators move hard against listed exchanges or mining operations, through SEC enforcement or hostile state level energy rules.
• A few players come to control most of the network or most of the custody, breaking the case that crypto is decentralized.

thesis

Globalization built the supply chains we have today. Cheap goods from wherever made them cheapest, often China. That model is now breaking. Tariffs, sanctions, the war in Ukraine, the chip standoff, and a long list of other shocks have pushed governments and large companies to bring production closer to home. That shift takes a lot of money. New factories, more defense spending, more electrical infrastructure, more automation to keep domestic labor competitive, more freight and rail. This basket owns the companies that get paid when that money gets spent. The thesis pays off if the move toward economies that depend less on each other keeps building over the next several years, not just headline by headline but as a real rewiring of how the world buys and makes things.

why this basket

I think this is one of the most important structural stories in the market right now and it cuts across many industries: defense, electrical equipment, automation, freight, materials, and heavy machinery. Picking just one of those and being right does not help much if the others go nowhere. So I bought a basket that covers all of them. If the deglobalization story keeps playing out, the basket should benefit broadly. If only one piece works and the rest do not, the spread protects me from being wrong on any single name.

what would make me sell

• Major reversal in trade policy. If tariffs are rolled back significantly and the world moves back to a single global supply chain, a lot of the spending case for these companies disappears.
• Defense budgets get cut hard. A sustained period of peace that pulls back government defense spending would remove the main driver behind names like NOC, GD, BWXT, and LDOS.
• Industrial spending slows broadly. Even if the deglobalization story stays true, an industrial recession can pause the projects these companies live off, which would hit the basket regardless of the long term theme.

thesis

AI is turning into basic infrastructure, the way electricity and the internet did before it. The companies in this basket sit at different points along that build out. Some make the chips and memory that train and run the models, like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron. Some run the cloud and data platforms that everything else leans on, like Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Snowflake, and Datadog. Some are large businesses folding AI into what they already sell, like Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, ServiceNow, and Salesforce. The bet pays off if AI keeps moving from demos into real, paid use across the economy over the next several years. Owning the whole chain instead of one name means I do not have to guess which single company wins, only that the theme keeps growing.

why this basket

I did not want to put everything on one AI stock, because the eventual winner inside the theme is the hardest part to call. So I bought the enablers and the adopters together. If demand for AI keeps climbing, the chip and cloud names should benefit no matter whose model is in front. If the models themselves turn cheap and interchangeable, the companies applying AI to real products still capture value. Spreading across eighteen names keeps any single blow up from sinking the whole idea.

what would make me sell

• The spending turns out to be a bubble, where the huge outlay on chips and data centers does not produce enough real revenue to justify it, and the build out slows hard.
• A few players lock up the whole stack, so the economics stop flowing to the broad set of companies in this basket and pool into one or two names I do not own enough of.
• Hard limits choke the rollout, for example strict policy on data, energy, or chip exports that stalls the growth the basket is priced for.

thesis

Getting to space keeps getting cheaper, mostly because rockets can now be reused and satellites keep getting smaller and easier to launch. That is opening up real businesses on top of space: global internet, Earth imaging for defense and climate, precise navigation and timing, and national security work. This basket owns companies across that stack. Some launch and build the hardware, like Rocket Lab, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. Some run the satellites that sell data or connectivity, like Planet Labs and Viasat. Some supply the sensors, parts, and guidance systems the whole sector needs, like Heico, Teledyne, Honeywell, Garmin, Trimble, and L3Harris. The bet pays off if launch costs keep falling and more of the economy comes to depend on things that live in orbit.

why this basket

Space is early and the individual names are risky, so picking one and being wrong would really hurt. I spread the bet across the launchers, the satellite operators, and the parts suppliers so that progress anywhere in the sector can show up in the basket. The heavier weights sit in the pure space names like Planet Labs and Rocket Lab, with steadier defense and parts companies underneath to soften the swings.

what would make me sell

• Launch costs stop falling, so the cheaper access to orbit that the whole case rests on stalls, and the new space businesses stay too expensive to scale.
• Government budgets pull back, since many of these companies lean on defense and public space programs, and a sustained spending cut would remove a main source of revenue.
• The pure space names keep burning cash without reaching profit, so the market stops funding them and the speculative part of the basket gets repriced hard.