Investing in the open.

/ thesis

When Bitcoin goes up, mining companies usually go up faster, because their costs are mostly fixed while their revenue moves with the coin price. So a basket of miners is a way to bet on Bitcoin with extra upside, and extra risk if Bitcoin falls. To balance that, the basket also holds the exchanges, the retail brokerage apps, and the payment platforms that earn fees from crypto activity regardless of which coin is winning. The thesis pays off if crypto keeps moving toward the mainstream over the next several years. The mix protects me when any single piece, like miner margins, gets squeezed by power costs or a tough Bitcoin market.

/ why this basket

I wanted exposure to the picks and shovels of crypto, not the gold itself. Buying public stocks instead of buying tokens means I do not have to manage wallets or worry about losing my keys. Spreading the bet across many miners, exchanges, and payment companies means one company blowing up does not wipe me out, which I think matters a lot in a sector that swings this hard.

/ what would make me sell

• Bitcoin enters a long bear market and miners cannot make money even after the next halving cuts their issuance.
• US regulators move hard against listed exchanges or mining operations, through SEC enforcement or hostile state level energy rules.
• A few players come to control most of the network or most of the custody, breaking the case that crypto is decentralized.

/ thesis

Globalization built the supply chains we have today. Cheap goods from wherever made them cheapest, often China. That model is now breaking. Tariffs, sanctions, the war in Ukraine, the chip standoff, and a long list of other shocks have pushed governments and large companies to bring production closer to home. That shift takes a lot of money. New factories, more defense spending, more electrical infrastructure, more automation to keep domestic labor competitive, more freight and rail. This basket owns the companies that get paid when that money gets spent. The thesis pays off if the move toward economies that depend less on each other keeps building over the next several years, not just headline by headline but as a real rewiring of how the world buys and makes things.

/ why this basket

I think this is one of the most important structural stories in the market right now and it cuts across many industries: defense, electrical equipment, automation, freight, materials, and heavy machinery. Picking just one of those and being right does not help much if the others go nowhere. So I bought a basket that covers all of them. If the deglobalization story keeps playing out, the basket should benefit broadly. If only one piece works and the rest do not, the spread protects me from being wrong on any single name.

/ what would make me sell

• Major reversal in trade policy. If tariffs are rolled back significantly and the world moves back to a single global supply chain, a lot of the spending case for these companies disappears.
• Defense budgets get cut hard. A sustained period of peace that pulls back government defense spending would remove the main driver behind names like NOC, GD, BWXT, and LDOS.
• Industrial spending slows broadly. Even if the deglobalization story stays true, an industrial recession can pause the projects these companies live off, which would hit the basket regardless of the long term theme.